How Allan Lichtman's Presidential Election Prediction Model Works

Introduction

Allan Lichtman, a political scientist at American University, has developed a predictive model that has successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. His model is based on 13 "keys" that reflect the state of the country and the candidates running for office. If six or more of these keys are present, Lichtman predicts that the incumbent party will lose the election.

The 13 Keys

The 13 keys are as follows:

• Party mandate: The incumbent party must have won the popular vote in the previous presidential election.
• Incumbency: The incumbent party must have controlled the White House for at least the past two terms.
• Third-party challenge: There must be a strong third-party candidate running for office.
• Scandal: The incumbent party must be embroiled in a major scandal.
• Social unrest: There must be widespread social unrest in the country.
• Foreign/military failure: The incumbent party must have failed to handle a major foreign policy or military crisis.
• Midterm loss: The incumbent party must have lost control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
• Short-term economic decline: The economy must be in a recession or experiencing a sharp decline in growth.
• Long-term economic decline: The economy must have been in a state of decline for at least two years.
• Policy change: The incumbent party must have made a major policy change that is unpopular with the public.
• New leadership: The incumbent party must have a new leader who is unpopular with the public.
• Negative peace: The country must be in a state of peace, but the public is not satisfied with the way things are going.
• Prospective peace: The country is on the cusp of a major peace agreement, but the public is not optimistic about the future.

How the Model Works

To predict the outcome of an election, Lichtman assigns a value of 1 to each key that is present and a value of 0 to each key that is not present. He then adds up the total number of keys that are present. If the total is 6 or more, he predicts that the incumbent party will lose the election.

The Model's Success Rate

Lichtman's model has successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. In 2016, for example, Lichtman correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the election. His model has also been used to predict the outcome of elections in other countries, such as Canada and the United Kingdom.

Criticisms of the Model

Lichtman's model has been criticized by some for being too simplistic and for not taking into account all of the factors that can influence the outcome of an election. However, Lichtman's model has a strong track record of success, and it provides a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of presidential elections.

Conclusion

Allan Lichtman's presidential election prediction model is a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of presidential elections. His model has successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, and it provides a valuable tool for understanding the factors that can influence the outcome of an election.

Allan Lichtman